Saturday, 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM (ET)
2018: Voting, Demographics and Issues
Moderator: Sanjay Vrudhula
Who Should be Held Responsible?: The Effects of Group Framing Upon Climate Change Mitigation
Speaker(s): Andrew Thompson, Northwestern University
Blue Waves and White Bubbles
Speaker(s): Gary Langer, Langer Research Associates
Dissecting the Urban/Rural Divide: Analyzing Demographic Differences in Voting Behavior and Political Attitudes within Community Types
Speaker(s): Emily Swanson, The Associated Press
Hannah Fingerhut, The Associated Press
Health Care on the Ballot in 2018? Findings from 2018 Election Polls
Speaker(s): Mollyann Brodie, Kaiser Family Foundation
Liz Hamel, Kaiser Family Foundation
Ashley Kirzinger, Kaiser Family Foundation
More than Spare Change: Proximity and Voter Preferences on Homelessness Spending
Speaker(s): Ayobami Laniyonu, University of Toronto
Shakari Byerly, University of California, Los Angeles
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Saturday, 10:00 AM - 11:30 AM (ET)
Accomplishments and Challenges of Exit Polling
Moderator: Courtney Kennedy
Interviewing Early Voters in Person: Methodology and Results from 2018 NEP Early Voter Exit Polls
Speaker(s): Joe Lenski, Edison Research
Rob Farbman, Edison Research
Melissa Kiesche, Edison Research
Considerations in Weighting and Evaluating Exit Poll Data
Speaker(s): Dan Merkle, ABC
Evaluating the Exit Poll at the Precinct Level
Speaker(s): John Lapinski, NBC, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
Josh Clinton, Vanderbilt University
Stephen Pettigrew, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
Andrew Arenge, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
Charlie Riemann, NBC
Reanalyzing the Exit Poll with Knowledge of Final Vote Results
Speaker(s): Josh Clinton, Vanderbilt University
John Lapinski, NBC, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
Marc Meredith, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
Samantha Sangenito, Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies
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Saturday, 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM(ET)
The AP VoteCast: Methodology and Results
Moderator: Trevor Tompson
AP VoteCast 2018: Assessing the Impact of a New Approach to Election Polling
Speaker(s): Jennifer Benz, NORC at the University of Chicago
David Sterrett, NORC at the University of Chicago
David Scott, The Associated Press
Emily Swanson, The Associated Press
The Economy, Trade, and Voting: Using AP VoteCast Data to Demonstrate the Effect of Local Conditions on Americans’ Attitudes and Vote Choice
Speaker(s): Dan Malato, NORC at the University of Chicago
David Sterrett, NORC at the University of Chicago
Jennifer Benz, NORC at the University of Chicago
William Bonnell, NORC at the University of Chicago
Tomas Okal, NORC at the University of Chicago
Trevor Tompson, NORC at the University of Chicago
AP VoteCast’s Use of a National MRP Model to Calibrate Non-Probability Samples in All 50 States
Speaker(s): David Sterrett, NORC at the University of Chicago
N. Ganesh, NORC at the University of Chicago
Jennifer Benz, NORC at the University of Chicago
Dan Malato, NORC at the University of Chicago
Trevor Tompson, NORC at the University of Chicago
Exploring Selection and Measurement Differences by Response Mode in AP VoteCast
Speaker(s): Benjamin Skalland, NORC at the University of Chicago
David Sterrett, NORC at the University of Chicago
Emily Swanson, The Associated Press
Hannah Fingerhut, The Associated Press
David Scott, The Associated Press
The Unexamined Electorate: Using VoteCast to Study Small Voting Populations and Nonvoters.
Speaker(s): Emily Swanson, The Associated Press
Hannah Fingerhut, The Associated Press
Marjorie Connelly, The AP-NORC Center
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Saturday, 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM(ET)
Election Forecasting, Modeling, and Weighting
Moderator: Andrew Smith
Method of Flexible Model Based Weighting
Speaker(s): Masahiko Aida, Civis Analytics
Michael Sadowsky, Civis Analytics
Allison Sullivan, Civis Analytics
Keith Myers-Crum, Citadel Securities
Modeling Vote Choice at the Local-Level Using 2018 AP Votecast Data
Speaker(s): Nadarajasundaram Ganesh, NORC at the University of Chicago
David Sterrett, NORC at the University of Chicago
Jennifer Benz, NORC at the University of Chicago
Trevor Tompson, NORC at the University of Chicago
New Levels of Accuracy with Calibrated Polling
Speaker(s): Tobias Konitzer, PredictWise
David Rothschild, PredictWise
Predicting German Election Results with MrsP Using Data from a Large Opt-In Online-Panel
Speaker(s): Tobias Wolfram, Civey GmbH
Charlotte Weber, Civey GmbH
Jacob Kastl, Civey GmbH
Using Unstructured Data during Elections:
Moving Towards a Full Spectrum Approach to Election Forecasting
Speaker(s): Chris Jackson, Ipsos
Mark Polyak, Ipsos
Mallory Newall, Ipsos
Alexa Dibenedetto, Ipsos
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